Deglogalization as a Trend

Waves have riptides, and globalization is no exception. We long ago noted in this space that a small, but vigorous, backlash posed a risk to the wave of globalization that emerged in the 1980's and blossomed through the 1990's and into the early 2000's. Since the economic crisis of 2008, the riptide has grown in strength until now, with Brexit in the U.K. and the election of Donald Trump in the U.S., populist nationalism itself seems to be the next wave.Ruchir Sharma, writing in today's New York Times, sees parallels with the world in 1914 (that's when World War I began), and we should heed the warning: history can repeat itself. In some ways, we are in this moment because we failed to understand the repetitive cycles of events and began behaving as if globalization was both an unmitigated good and a given. Neither is the case. While progress is part of the long arc of history, any particular decade (or more) can look pretty regressive and horrific.Strategists at independent and international schools should begin factoring into account Sharma's words, that "it is time to recognize the likely fallout [of deglobalization], which is slower growth, higher inflation and rising conflict."