Being in a Tough Neighborhood May Be the Least of Jordan's Problems

Amman - Uncomfortably nestled between failed states (Syria and Iraq) and belligerent neighbors (Palestine and Israel), and in close proximity to wild cards Lebanon and Iran, Jordan is either an island of sanity or teetering on the brink, depending on your point of view. Beyond the Bedouin, Jordan is a nation of refugees, with the vast majority of citizens tracing their heritage to pre-1948, 1948 and 1967 migrations from Palestine, the two Iraq wars, various conflagrations in Lebanon, and now the meltdown in Syria.The uprisings of the Arab Spring are not lost on Jordanians who more or less seem bound together by a common allegiance to King Abdullah. Perhaps the most serious, and overlooked, threat to Jordan's future may not be in becoming a battleground for nutcase neighbors. Israel and Iran may never fight each other, but an even more certain unwinding is growing within modern-day Jordanian society. As reported in this item from the English-language Jordan Times, the failure rate on the standardized Tawjihi exit exam from high school reached 60% nationwide in 2015. With more than 57,000 students sitting for the Tawjihi, this means that at least 35,000 young men and women face a future of limited prospects and no university attendance. And, most importantly, the failure rate appears much higher for males - adding to an ever-growing cadre of unemployed young men with too much idle time and too few options for success, a recipe for trouble wherever it occurs.One can debate the merits of high-stakes testing, and the Tawjihi is high-stakes with a vengeance, but it is the entry portal through which Jordanian youth must pass on their way to an economically (and socially) viable future. Whether or not one likes or agrees with the notion of such testing, a country cannot long stand a growing group of unemployable (or under-employable) young citizens. If, as I suspect, the government education system in Jordan is seriously broken, then steps must be taken to fix the problems and they must be taken quickly. Or, if the system works, then options such as a vocational education program must be available in lieu of university.Anything else invites an almost-certain disaster.