An Unremitting Trend

Instability, in one form or another, has been atop our periodic trends list for the past decade. Beginning with the economic uncertainty triggered by the 2008 global crisis and continuing with 2016's Brexit vote in the U.K. and Trump election in the U.S., a volatile and unpredictable context frames the backdrop for almost everyone. While some might see 2016 as a culmination of sorts, we think of it as just another lurch along an already bumpy ride.That view is underscored by two pieces from INSEAD, the world-leading business school in France and Singapore. The first, by Pushan Dutt, offers a reasoned and careful analysis of populism's global rise. One implication of Dutt's analysis is that the factors that fueled populism's rise are likely to continue for the foreseeable future (more on what this means in a future post).The second, by Michael Witt, draws geopolitical trend lines from global events, especially in terms of the relative positions of China and the U.S. While one might quibble with Witt's apparent relegation of Russia to a position of lesser importance (still dangerously disruptive in our view), the trends he draws all point in the same direction: less stability and more turmoil.Time to buckle up, people; the ride is just beginning.