What Might Come this Fall?

Two articles this week from the Chronicle of Higher Education are especially chilling for anyone in the education industry. Both articles connect to the long tail effect that the COVID-19 pandemic is having and will have on schools, and we suggest there is a direct parallel to what may happen in the private, independent K-12 sector in the USA and international schools around the world.The first article, with an apocalyptic headline, predicts a raft of traumas for schools, including layoffs, declarations of financial exigency (allowing the school to set aside tenure agreements), and outright closures. As usual, small schools and, this time around, those with the greatest dependency on "auxiliary revenue" (room and board in college parlance) are in the most danger if on-campus education does not resume in full.The second, about the Trump Administration's plan to force international students whose schools do not restart in-person classes to leave the country, describes the vulnerability of high-profile universities such as NYU, USC, Northeastern, and Columbia. These schools are from 31 to 54% dependent on international student enrollment.Not good news any way you slice it.