What Matters Most in 2010

Matt Yglesias blogs today about probabilities and the likelihood of false positives when dealing with rare events--applied specifically in this instance to the problem of identifying terrorists within a given population.  What Yglesias identifies is actually a conundrum with implications for all of us, not just those trying to keep underwear bombers off of airplanes.  We all seem to spend a vast amount of time, effort and money on things that, in the end, simply won't have that much impact.

 Perhaps the prima leadership challenge anyone faces is figuring out what matters most; that is, which, among myriad alternatives, are the most important issues, challenges, dilemmas worth tackling.  In short, what has impact and what, even if successfully addressed, fails to move the needle in any meaningful way?  The situation is complicated by the fact that what flashes brightest, or has the most noise, is often not what really matters from a strategic perspective.

So, on New Year's Day 2010, here's my resolution: To strive in 2010 to put more time and effort toward things that really matter in terms of long-term outcomes, and less toward those that simply seem most noticeable.