University Enrollment at a Deeper Level

The headline is provocative: "Enrollment in U.S. Higher Education Drops (Again)!" Bracing myself to read another story, backed up with evidence, of the pending demise of American higher education, I dug into both the story and the linked report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. However, just a glance at the lead graphic (see below) reveals an entirely different story.The most precipitous drop in enrollment is in for-profit schools, a sector beset with ethical scandals and questions about the value of their degrees. A distance second--in terms of drop--are 2-year community colleges, probably for some of the same questions around value. Public and private nonprofit universities were essentially flat, not declining. So the message is actually quite positive, at least for the nonprofit sector: amid ever-smaller high school graduating classes, enrollment in traditional American higher education is stable.Drilling still deeper into the report reveals a more nuanced finding. At the state-by-state level, the data begin to separate with some states (Michigan, Missouri and Oregon, for example) tanking and others (New Hampshire) going gangbusters. As in politics, all enrollment is local. Even still, the hyperbolic headlines mislead.