Place Your Bets and Re-Evaluate Strategy Often
In Sapporo to work with the Hokkaido International School (HIS) governing board and as I learn about the school and its history am reminded of something Roger Martin, former University of Toronto Rotman Business School dean, wrote:
"The reality is that strategy is about making choices under competition and uncertainty. No choice made today can make future uncertainty go away. The best that great strategy can do is shorten the odds of success. When crafting a strategy, all companies need to make bets about what customers will want in the future, what competitors will do in the future, what the company itself is capable of accomplishing in the future, what will happen in the economy generally. None of these bets can be guaranteed.
"Strategy means making the best possible choices you can make today and then being responsive when the bets do or do not come in as hoped. In essence, the strategist says “this is what I think will happen,” watches what does happen, and then updates the strategy and bets based on the newest information."
The environment in Hokkaido is anything but certain. Demography is aversive, as it is across much of Japan, and there are few traditional (i.e. corporate or consular) expats on this island. Most of the HIS families self-pay. Yet, HIS executive and board leadership sensed an opportunity near the Niseko resort community about two hours from Sapporo and opened a small elementary school there two years ago.Enrollment at Niseko is soft, and that begs the question about the viability of this strategic bet. And that is Martin's point, exactly. One must continually re-evaluate bets against new data. What seemed prudent at one point in time may become less so as circumstances change. While acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in life, it seems also necessary to acknowledge the importance of placing bets like Niseko, not because we are certain now, but rather because we will know more in the future. And we will adjust plans accordingly. Anything else leads to blind hopefulness or total paralysis.