Moderating Expectations of a Revolution

It is the conceit of every generation to believe that the age in which it lives is utterly unique and without precedent in human history; likewise, that current conditions cannot continue and that the future will look nothing at all like the present. Well, yes and no, especially when it comes to education. Wherever we travel--last week in St. Louis and Los Angeles, then at ECIS in Sevilla, now in Northern California--we hear again the expectation that the essential business model of private, independent education is certain to change (and soon). Some leaders are frankly pessimistic about whether this part of the education sector can survive.We are more optimistic, though within limits. Yes, prices are high and will keep going higher, riding Baumol's cost disease a point or three beyond the base rate of inflation. But it has always been so. Yes, the middle class is disappearing in Western countries. But there have never been more high-income families than now. Yes, economic diversity is a worthy goal, if it is becoming almost impossible to attain. But solvency is just as worthy--maybe more so if schools are to remain going concerns. Yes, developments in technology offer to break down the time/space issue that has shaped what schools physically look like for generations. But even corporations have discovered (Yahoo, famously) that there are some things that really do require being together in the same room at the same time.This is not to say that change is avoidable; nor is it to suggest we try to do so. Rather, it is to suggest we moderate our expectations of a revolution, and instead affirm and reinforce the unique value on offer for our tuitions. Worldwide, we are in a growth industry (see ISC Research data showing a net increase of 4,303 private international schools between 2000 and 2014). Maybe the biggest conceit of all is expecting that our schools will always be able to serve the same population.