Forming Strategy Amid Uncertainty

Strategy making is about imagining an uncertain future. Life is inherently uncertain. Aside from the usual (death and taxes), very little that involves human beings can be predicted with perfect accuracy. Call it "carbon unit variation," but it is in the nature of organic beings (especially sentient ones) to behave in unpredictable ways.Big Data offers the possibility of certainty; e.g., if we just have enough data points, then we can predict outcomes for real. Maybe. Maybe in theory. But the problems are (1) that we don't have anywhere near enough data, and (2) the cost (time and money) of getting the data is prohibitive. Nonetheless, we keep finding board members, especially in tech and finance-centric locales such as San Francisco and New York, who behave as if strategy making is all about eliminating uncertainty. Baseball cybermetrics (Moneyball) comes to institutional planning.At some point, strategizers must step away from the screen, put aside their surveys and metrics, and place their "bets" on what strategies will lead to their school's success in future decades. Data can inform the bets--even narrow the uncertainty range--but when all is known that can reasonably (and affordably) be known, the strategists must earn their keep via insight and intuition. Anything else makes the process unwieldy and unsuccessful.