Being of Two Minds (about most things)

A new white paper by Paola Giuliano and Antonio Spilimbergo, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research in the United States, suggests that coming of age during a recession produces marked changes in one's world view, changes that cut in opposite directions at the same time:

"One of the strongest results from this research is the long-lasting effect of recessions on individuals' confidence in government and its role in society. For example, individuals have a significantly lower level of confidence in Congress and the executive branch of the federal government when they experience poor economic conditions while they are coming of age. But there are off-setting tendencies, too. 'On the one hand, recession-hit individuals believe that the government should intervene more, so they lean more to the left. On the other hand, these individuals distrust institutions, believing them to be ineffective, therefore leaning more to the right.'"

The NBER data are consistent with something we have observed in constituent surveys, focus groups, and other contexts where opinions are heard and measured: people are frequently of two minds about important issues.  On the one hand, constituents want x, but, at the same time, they also want y (where x and y are negatively correlated in the real world).  So, parents in independent schools want the school to be free, say, from No Child Left Behind regulation, but at the same time they often question whether there is sufficient oversight of what happens in classrooms.  Or, they like the school's independence from a sponsoring religious denomination or governmental entity, but they resist fully subscribing to annual giving campaigns.

Leaders, beware!  Never assume rational consistency in your audience.  We arr all of many minds about almost everything.