Civil War as a Risk

Triangle Associates compiles a periodic list of trends affecting private, independent schools in the United States and international schools around the world. Every few weeks, we update the list as items rise and fall in importance and impact. Our January 2022 list is remarkable for one new item: the possibility of civil war in the United States.

The veneer of civilization is always thin, but for the past 150+ years, the notion that America would again tear itself apart as happened in the middle of the 19th Century over the enslavement of human beings has been both unthinkable and exceedingly unlikely. This is no longer the case.

As William G. Gale and Darrell M. West from Brookings note, the list of divisive issues goes on and on: Racial equity, gun control, abortion, election legitimacy, climate change, vaccines, masks, and religion itself top the charts. Not surprising that many of these issues have increasingly inflamed culture wars in public and private schools alike. The weight of what divides the US seems to exceed what unites it on any given day.

Once reserved for extremist social media platforms, open discussion of the likely nature and likelihood of another American civil war is becoming common in the NY Times (see Michelle Goldberg’s excellent editorial). As a counterpoint, Fintan O’Toole, writing in The Atlantic, makes the case that talk of civil war is both alarmist and dangerous. O’Toole points to the Irish “troubles” as something that killed thousands over 30+ years but did not become an all-out war as evidence that civil war is not inevitable. 

While O’Toole lived in Ireland through much of that period and we did not, a conflict “that brought death to thousands and varying degrees of misery to millions” is pretty horrible. In fact, it would seem to be the prime example of what Barbara F. Walter, author of How Civil Wars Start and How to Stop Them, calls a “minor armed conflict,” one that kills at least 25 people per year. By that standard, we are already there in terms of right-wing violence.

Regardless, strategic planners and those leading organizations in the US need to consider civil strife as a serious risk factor.